NIO's New Models: Current Status and Challenges
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In a significant event on December 21, 2024, NIO, a notable player in the electric vehicle market, unveiled two pivotal models at their annual NIO DayThe highlight of the evening was the introduction of the ET9 flagship sedan, scheduled for delivery in March 2025, accompanied by the brand's third product line, Firefly, aimed at the international marketWhile these introductions underline NIO's ambition and innovation, they also expose the company's urgent need to address immediate market pressures amidst fierce competition.
NIO founder Li Bin expressed a rather modest sales expectation, indicating, “We’d be quite happy if we sell 1,000 units of the ET9 each month.” This flagship model, positioned as an "executive vehicle," starts at a price of 788,000 yuan (approximately $110,000) but is available at a lower benchmark of 660,000 yuan (about $94,000) through the Battery as a Service (BaaS) model
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Comparatively, this pricing reflects a 270,000 yuan increase over the predecessor ES8 model, highlighting NIO’s intention to position the ET9 in a premium segment.
Li Bin noted that the ET9's competitors encompass high-end luxury cars, often referred to as the “78SP” classification, standing for models such as the BMW 7 Series, Audi A8, Mercedes-Benz S-Class, and Porsche Panamera, most of which command prices starting above 900,000 yuanNIO aims to leverage its technological advantages typical of electric vehicles, illustrating superiority in control precision, reduced latency, enhanced software capabilities, and better space integration that traditional combustion engine vehicles cannot offerLi condensed the selling points of the ET9 into nine key aspects centered around design, reliability, and comfort.
From a design perspective, the ET9's appearance, considerably less elongated than its gasoline counterparts due to the compact nature of electric motors, affords a more spacious cabin
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Catering to the executive vehicle market, the interior boasts unique features, including two independent rear seats separated by a central console reminiscent of the layout in a Porsche Panamera, which includes a small table, refrigerator, and other functionalitiesThis thoughtful design emphasizes a sense of luxury and space.
In terms of reliability, the ET9 integrates robust safety features suitable for intelligent driving, equipped with three laser radars—including two on the sides—and a more durable body frame, thereby ensuring enhanced road performanceOn the comfort front, it features a new intelligent operating system, Cedar, along with a state-of-the-art audio system comprising 35 speakers, achieving a smoother driving experience with steer-by-wire technology, and active suspension systems that adjust the vehicle's height for easier entry and exit.
Highlighting the event, the ET9 underwent a "champagne tower" test, a nod to luxury vehicles, where a tower of champagne glasses remained undisturbed while the engine ran—a demonstration of advanced shock absorbing capabilities
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In a previous presentation, the car demonstrated a four-tier structure, but this event showcased a five-tier version tested by none other than the former CEO of Volkswagen Group, Herbert DiessSuch undertakings exemplify NIO's commitment to pushing the boundaries of comfort and technology in their vehicles.
Developed on NIO's next-generation technology platform, NT3.0, the ET9 reveals numerous technical strides when compared to the more mass-market model, the L60, which operates under the same platformHowever, given that NIO's core vehicles transitioned to the NT2.0 platform only in 2022 and 2023, a rapid switch to NT3.0-based models appears limited in the short term.
Following the exhaustive unveiling of the ET9, Li Bin dedicated time to introduce the Firefly, NIO's new venture into budget segment vehicles, presenting its first model priced at 148,800 yuan (about $21,000). Estimated to be a small SUV, the car is believed to measure just over four meters in length
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Li Bin likened it to being "more MINI than SMART," drawing comparisons to recently lowered-priced electric models such as the Wuling Bingo and BYD DolphinThe price point aligns closely with the recently discounted electric MINI Cooper, aiming to secure a foothold in a highly competitive segment.
Initially conceptualized in May 2022 for the European market, the Firefly was designed for a “high-end small car” niche after thorough research across 17 countriesLi explains that while Chinese consumers might favor larger vehicles for the same price range, the direction of market preferences in Europe leans heavily towards compact cars due to road conditionsThe volume for the global small car market is estimated at over 10 million vehicles, with Europe accounting for more than 4 million, in stark contrast to China's mere 1.3 million.
However, the road to launching Firefly in Europe is fraught with challenges
Following the European Union's announcement in September of last year intent to investigate alleged subsidies for Chinese EV companies, export costs surged unexpectedlyOriginally set for a late 2024 delivery in Europe, the schedule was pushed back for at least six months, with plans now aiming for a simultaneous launch in both China and Europe after an April unveilingThis necessary shift has prompted NIO to reconsider its initially planned direct sales model in favor of a “country agent” approach, which involves securing local representatives in each market to handle storefronts, thereby mitigating upfront investments while NIO retains customer service management.
Currently, Firefly is only projected to offer one model, with prospects of localized versions rolling out in different regions, including a planned range-extended version for the Middle Eastern market
The brand's selling points—flexibility in control, thoughtful design, and reliability—are geared towards appealing to niche personalization within consumer expectations, reflected in its unconventional design languageAn example of this uniqueness is found in its headlights incorporated with three independently operating small round lights that emit different colors, humorously referred to as "insect compound eyes" by some online commentators.
Given its positioning as a small car, the Firefly is anticipated to utilize a smaller battery capacity, necessitating the construction of an independent battery swapping infrastructure, which will not integrate with existing NIO or Leida systemsAccording to NIO's President Qin Lihong, approximately 2,000 new charging stations will be established next year, some of which will cater to Firefly’s needs, likely situated alongside NIO's existing facilities
Notably, Firefly will also incorporate Horizon Robotics' chips for its intelligent driving capabilities, marking a departure from the previous reliance on Nvidia and NIO's in-house designed chips.
Despite the thoughtfully planned endeavors with Firefly, NIO did not disclose specific sales targetsHowever, noting that similar brands like SMART and MINI collectively fall short of 100,000 annual sales in China, with Li Bin emphasizing the need for Firefly to independently widen its market share, expectations remain modest, likely hovering in the range of a few thousand units monthlyIf global dynamics are accounted for, there exists potential for sales figures to ascend towards around 10,000 units monthly.
From NIO’s strategic perspective, both Firefly and ET9, while poised to attract attention, are expected to have limited immediate impact
Observers note that revenue from these models might not materialize for one to two quarters, and their effect on cash flows appears constrained in the current harsh competitive landscapeNIO's sustained revenue will predominantly come from its second brand, Leida, which focuses on the mass market but is showing sluggish performance.
Upon the launch of Leida in late September 2024, Li Bin projected an ambitious goal of delivering 20,000 units within the year, with intentions of rolling out delivery schedules in October (5,000 units), November (5,000 units), and December (10,000 units). However, actual deliveries fell short of their ambitious outlines, showing figures of 4,319 units in October, 5,082 in November, and approximately 10,528 in DecemberFor reference, a parallel comparison to fellow newcomer Xiaomi reveals spiking delivery figures of over 27,000 units achieved between April and June 2024, underlining Xiaomi's advantage in ramp-up efficiency.
The competition within the segment that Leida competes in is increasingly fierce, even overshadowing the pressures faced by Xiaomi
With the new Xiaomi SU7 model facing competition from long-standing leaders such as the Tesla Model 3 and BYD Han, Leida, however, wrestles against an array of competitors including Tesla and BYD products, while contending with the influx of other emerging brandsFor example, the Zeekr 7X launched concurrently reported cumulative sales exceeding 25,000 units within a span of just two months, while another competing model, Avita 07, also crossed 12,000 units in just 50 days post-launch, significantly outpacing Leida.
Considering such intense competition, the original target for reaching 20,000 units monthly starting from March next year now appears increasingly dauntingLi Bin, during a recent interview, refused to set a new timeline for reaching that goalInstead, he noted the importance of enhancing brand influence, execution, and sales capabilities as vital areas for focus—and acknowledged the multitude of tasks ahead to realize success in this evolving market.
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