Gold Plunge
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In recent financial news, the yield on the 10-year U.STreasury bond has seen an increase of 0.83%, climbing up by 3.8 basis points to a notable 4.633%. This rise in yield comes amidst heightened market tensions as the U.Sgovernment prepares to issue a substantial $119 billion in new government debt this weekThe increasing pressures surrounding U.Sdebt are further exacerbating fears that the government could inadvertently reignite inflation.
On Monday, various economic indicators released in the United States painted a mixed pictureThe December Markit services PMI registered at 56.8, the highest it has been since March 2022, yet it fell short of market expectations of 58.5. Furthermore, the final reading for the composite PMI in December stood at 55.4, down from an earlier 56.6. Such discrepancies highlight a degree of uncertainty in the economic recovery process.
The U.S
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Dollar Index opened to a turbulent start, initially showing signs of weakness as the dollar dipped over 1% and briefly dropped below the 108 thresholdCurrently, it shows a decrease of 0.64%, now standing at 108.250. This fluctuation underscores the challenges the Federal Reserve and the Treasury may face in balancing interest rates while fostering economic growth, presenting an air of uncertainty regarding the dollar's future performance.
In terms of commodities, there was a notable reaction in the gold market, where spot gold surged during adjustments in tariff plansAt one point, it rose above the $2640 mark before correcting to a current value of $2633.50 per ounce, reflecting a short-term drop of 0.27%. Similarly, silver also saw volatility but managed to climb upwards after a brief decline, now trading at $30.085 per ounce, with a gain of 1.56%.
Analysts on Wall Street have begun to diverge in their predictions for gold prices in 2025. Goldman Sachs, having previously maintained a bullish outlook projecting gold to reach $3000 per ounce by year-end, has revised its target down to $2910 per ounce
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They now foresee that such a figure may only be achieved by mid-2026. In contrast, JP Morgan continues to predict a higher target of $3000 for 2025, suggesting a possibility of further increases.
Turning to the oil market, crude oil futures opened positively, experiencing a tumultuous trading session before ultimately rebounding from earlier declinesThe latest reports from the EIA indicated a reduction in inventory levels, while strong economic sentiments surrounding major Asian economies continue to bolster oil pricesCompounding this, harsh winter weather in the U.Shas increased heating oil demands, offering additional support to crude pricesCurrently, Brent crude futures are up by 0.24%, priced at $76.670 per barrel, while U.SWest Texas Intermediate crude shows a slight increase of 0.11%, at $74.03 per barrelThis marks a five-day streak of price gainsAnalysts from Bank of America predict that the average price of Brent crude will settle around $65 per barrel in 2025, emphasizing the struggle OPEC and its allies might face in boosting oil prices while maintaining production cuts longer than anticipated.
Meanwhile, U.S
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stock markets opened with all three major indices reflecting positive momentumFollowing the opening, the Dow Jones climbed by 0.75%, the Nasdaq gained 1.91%, and the S&P 500 increased by 1.28%. Of notable interest was the surge of over 11% in wireless charging stocks, while the robotics sector and shares of NVIDIA saw declines of over 2%.
Federal Reserve Board Member Michelle Cook pointed out that, with a robust labor market and recent fluctuations in inflation data, the Fed could afford to adopt a more cautious approach when considering interest rate cutsThe prediction is for inflation to gradually and unevenly approach the targeted 2%. Meanwhile, the performance of notable U.Stech giants reflects varying fortunes: Tesla saw a marginal uptick of 0.02%, while NVIDIA soared by 5.03%. Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Google also showed gains, with respective increases of 1.18%, 1.94%, 1.80%, 2.94%, and 3.14%.
Interestingly, NVIDIA's significant rise comes in anticipation of CEO Jensen Huang's keynote speech at CES, with the market hopeful that his latest insights could rekindle investor optimism for AI technologies, potentially leading to a renewed surge in investments within the sector and boosting NVIDIA's stock further.
Meta Platforms experienced a jump of nearly 3% as Jefferies upgraded its price target for the company from $675 to $715.
In the realm of Chinese stocks, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index opened strongly but experienced volatility, with a downward dip before a recovery that narrowed the losses to 0.33%. The FTSE China 3x Long ETF fell by 1.74%. Among popular Chinese concepts, Alibaba rose by 0.62%, Pinduoduo increased by 2.64%, while JD.com saw a small dip of 0.24%. Other notable performances included NIO up by 2.81%, XPeng increasing by 1.03%, and iQIYI rising by 2.54%. However, companies like Trip.com, Tencent Music, and others faced declines.
Across the Atlantic, European stock indexes collectively posted gains
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The German DAX rose by 1.39%, the French index surged by 2.14%, the Italian index rose 1.85%, and the UK index saw a slight increase of 0.11%. Overall, the European STOXX 600 index gained 0.81%, while the Eurozone STOXX 50 index increased by 2.13%, reflecting a positive trading environment.
Goldman Sachs has expressed caution regarding a further steepening of the U.STreasury yield curve, suggesting that the forces driving certain parts of the yield curve to its steepest in over two years may be dissipatingTheir analysts believe the upcoming economic data could pose risks to an increasingly steep yield curve, aligning with their relative preference for shorter-end yieldsThey estimate the fair value for the 2s10s yield spread to be closer to 20 basis points, contrasting the current level of over 30 basis pointsThey warn that better-than-expected economic data may diminish confidence in imminent rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, while weak data may foster concerns over tariff risks, possibly dampening optimism regarding economic growth and alleviating the recent upward pressure faced by long-term yields.
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