Energy Storage Boom to Persist in Europe and US

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Recently, Tesla reached a significant milestone by successfully passing the completion acceptance of its Shanghai energy storage superfactory on December 27thThe expedited project, which commenced construction in May, took only seven months to completeAccording to Tesla's strategic objectives, the Megapack produced at this Shanghai facility is intended primarily for the international market, fulfilling the growing demand in the global energy storage landscapeThe factory has already begun trial production, with an official launch of mass production forecasted for early 2025.

There is a staggering demand from customers for energy storage systems, with high expectations regarding the timely integration into power grids, as well as long-term stable operationsRecognizing this urgency, Tesla is hastening its timeline for mass production at the Shanghai facility, setting its sights firmly on the lucrative North American and European markets.

As detailed in Tesla's financial disclosures, the third quarter of 2024 saw the company's energy generation and storage sector generate revenue of $2.376 billion, reflecting a substantial year-on-year increase of 52.4%. Remarkably, the gross profit margin of the energy storage segment climbed to a record 30.5%, outpacing the automotive sector's gross profit margin of just 17.1%. This underscores the energy storage business, especially in large-scale storage solutions, as a standout contributor to Tesla's profit growth in 2024.

Looking ahead to 2025, Europe is poised to witness an impressive growth rate exceeding 85% in large-scale storage systems.

With the integration of renewable energy sources increasing, Europe is grappling with the challenge of the existing grid's capacity to accommodate these changes

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The International Energy Agency (IEA) has noted that countries with high renewable energy proportions, such as Denmark, Ireland, Germany, Spain, and the UK, are encountering significant grid access issuesDuring peak times, these countries can meet almost all their energy demands through renewables, often generating surplus energyAs a consequence, there is an urgent requirement for flexibility resources to manage grid demands, making large-scale storage systems vital.

Recent data shows that in Italy, the installed capacity of large-scale storage systems in Q3 2024 is projected at 0.5GW/1.8GWh, which includes 0.3GW/1.3GWh for large storage, indicating a continuation of robust growthThe residential storage sector, however, faced challenges with installations at 0.2GW/0.5GWhFollowing EU subsidies, demand for large-scale storage in Italy is expanding significantly and is likely to be a key component of Europe’s demand increase in 2025.

Germany's figures are also noteworthy, with large storage installation capacity reaching 176MWh in November 2024, marking a stunning year-on-year growth of 162.3%. Cumulatively, from January to November 2024, the country has installed 545MWh of large storage, translating to an 82% increase

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However, in the same period, cumulative residential storage installations fell by 18% to 4.07GWh.

Meanwhile, the UK saw a moderate increase in large-scale storage installations, with Q3 2024 figures showing 293.9MW/423.3MWh added, although capacity has decreased by 15% year-on-year and increased by 16% since the previous quarterFactors such as delays in grid integration and decreased profitability at endpoint users have contributed to this trendHowever, with the last year's low profitability period behind, installations are gradually rebounding.

Looking at 2024, various European countries have accelerated supportive policies for large-scale storage systemsCountries like Italy, Spain, and Greece are making strides with capacity market bidding projects leading to faster deployment of large storage systemsProjections from SolarPowerEurope and LCP Delta suggest that Europe could see an annual large-scale storage installation of 7.4GWh in 2024, reflecting over a 200% year-on-year growth

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By 2025, the expectation stands for Europe to achieve an increase of more than 85% in large-scale storage deployment.

Furthermore, ongoing reforms in Europe are driving an increase in participation from energy storage and flexible resources in capacity market tradingThere is a heightened expectation for large-scale storage to shift toward price arbitrage and capacity markets, leading to diversified revenue streams that promise to boost economic viabilityThe parity of solar and storage systems holds the promise of opening long-term demand pathways vital for the sustained growth of the large storage market.

Even at the residential level, the energy storage market in Europe is seeing notable shiftsIn 2024, the decline in gas prices has led to changes in household electricity prices, influencing internal rates of return (IRR) and demand for residential storage systemsFor instance, the typical market example of a 5kW solar panel system paired with a 10kWh storage solution becomes more appealing economically when comparing scenarios with direct household use against systems reliant solely on solar energy without storage.

The decline of electricity prices across markets in Germany, Italy, and the UK in October 2024 diminished the economic advantages of residential storage systems somewhat

Nonetheless, governments across Europe continue to implement supportive policiesSuch measures include Italy halting photovoltaic feed-in tariffs to encourage self-consumption, and Austria exempting residential solar systems under 35kW from VAT for a span of two years, indicating a commitment to stimulating demand within the household storage market.

According to forecasts by SolarPowerEurope, Europe may see 8.7GWh of residential storage installations in 2024, which is a notable drop of 27.2% from the prior yearAs the market moves past excess inventory and interest rates continue to decline, a stable growth pattern for residential storage demand is expected to stabilize in 2025.

In the United States, it's anticipated that installed capacities for grid-side storage will more than double by 2028.

The U.Senergy storage market has experienced a robust upswing recentlyReports from the American Clean Power Association and Wood Mackenzie indicate that for Q3 2024, the U.S

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saw an addition of 3.8GW/9.9GWh of new storage projects, marking an 80% and 58% year-on-year increase, respectivelyNotably, over 90% of these new projects are grid-side installations, with about 9% for residential use and around 1% in commercial and industrial sectors.

The figures for Q3 2024 show total storage installations at 3.8GW/9.9GWh, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 60%. Of this, large-scale storage accounted for 3.4GW/9.2GWh, maintaining a high average investment cost of $2.95 per wattA staggering 93% of these projects are located in Texas and CaliforniaResidential contributions also surged, with installations of 0.37GW/0.65GWh in Q3, a year-on-year growth of 61% and a sequential increase of 51%. Regions like California, Arizona, and North Carolina are leading the charge, even as a battery shortage limits simultaneous installations between residential solar and storage projects

However, these states still reported impressive growth rates of 56%, 73%, and an astounding 100%, respectively, compared to Q2.

It’s crucial to acknowledge the rapid growth in demand for energy storage within residential and commercial domainsA multitude of households and businesses is increasingly opting to install solar energy storage systems to enhance self-sufficiency, cut energy costs, and provide backup power during outages.

The U.Sgovernment has played a pivotal role in fostering the development of the storage sector through initiatives such as solar investment tax credits, significantly reducing the installation costs for photovoltaic and storage systemsAdditionally, state-level governments have launched various policies, including subsidies and tax reductions, that further enhance growth opportunities in the energy storage marketBy 2028, it's estimated that U.S

grid-side storage installations could surpass a cumulative total of 63.7GWSimultaneously, the residential market is positioned to add approximately 10GW, while commercial and industrial projects could reach around 2.1GW.

Despite the promising future of the U.Senergy storage market, there are challenges to considerThe initial investment for storage systems remains prohibitive for a portion of consumers and businessesFurthermore, the increase in battery utilization raises pressing environmental concerns surrounding the disposal and recycling of outdated batteriesCompounding these issues, outdated grid infrastructure in several regions cannot fully accommodate the integration and operational management of distributed energy resources, which poses another barrier to the widespread adoption of storage systems.

In conclusion, both the European and U.Senergy storage markets are set to continue on a formidable growth trajectory through 2025. Supportive policy frameworks, ongoing technological advancements, and an unrelenting market demand will be vital drivers propelling quick market evolution

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